Climate extremes such as droughts, floods and heatwaves affect many parts of the world, already having devastating impacts on human health, food security, livelihoods, infrastructure and water resources. East Africa is one of the regions most prone to these extreme events, and particularly vulnerable due to its strong reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited resources to mitigate their effects. As climate change intensifies, these extreme events are predicted to be longer, more severe and more frequent, thus adding extra pressure on already overburdened developing nations, who have contributed the least to the greenhouse gas emissions causing global warming. One way to help East African nations adapt to climate change and be more resilient to extreme events is through improved understanding of the drivers and indicators of these phenomena, which can be used to develop effective early-warning systems. However, there are still a lot of uncertainties around how these extreme events develop in the region and what early indications may exist. Some of the barriers these countries face are a lack of measurements on the ground, limited access to data, and reduced capacity to undertake the necessary research due to lack of funding and low uptake of physics as a career (including climate physics), particularly by women. In this project (‘IKIRERE’, which means ‘climate’ in Kinyarwanda) we have partnered with colleagues in Rwanda and Tanzania to address two key climate change challenges affecting their societies and economies: uncertainties related to drought and heatwaves, and the reduced capacity in the field of climate physics. By combining scientific and capacity-building activities we will provide a comprehensive solution that not only sheds light on two pressing issues, namely droughts and heatwaves, but also contributes to building the next generation of local talent that will help their countries independently research, manage, mitigate and adapt to climate challenges in the long term. Our objectives are: Generate new knowledge of soil moisture droughts and heatwaves in East Africa through the use of physical process models, state-of-the-art methods and datasets. Exploit new technological methods, including explainable AI and physics-based machine-learning emulators. Build the capacity of early-career African researchers through dedicated workshops, with a focus on gender equality. Raise awareness of the importance of quality physics-based climate research through outreach in schools, including resources for primary schools and a dedicated Physics-Camp workshop for older pupils. We expect the outcomes of this project will have many benefits and applications. Some of the methods and tools developed for IKIRERE will be the building blocks for a future Digital Twin of droughts and heatwaves, which will help democratise access to climate data and provide decision support to stakeholders. The new knowledge of droughts and heatwaves will form the basis of new early-warning systems and help inform the affected countries to be better prepared for future events. The new educational tools and materials, supported by the UK STEM Learning Centre and GEO/CEOS, will reach large numbers of users through our collaboration with Digital Earth Africa. The school activities and dedicated physics workshops will train and inspire a wide range of local students and researchers, who may go on to take careers in climate physics. Finally, the dedicated gender equality workshop will raise awareness of the unique issues women face to the uptake of STEM careers and help break barriers.

ISPF aims to foster prosperity by solving shared global research and innovation challenges. This will be done through working closely with international partners to: support research excellence and build the knowledge and technology of tomorrow strengthen ties with international partners that share our values; enable researchers and innovators to cultivate connections, follow their curiosity and pioneer transformations internationally, for the good of the planet. Activities under ISPF ODA aim to deliver research and innovation partnerships with low- and middle-income countries.